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Alasdair Macleod and Ivan Bebek return.
The global economy is now in an expansionary phase, with bank credit being increasingly available for non-financial borrowers. That's a prelude to the crisis phase of the credit cycle. Most national economies are directly boosted by China, the important exception being America. This is confirmed by dollar weakness, which is expected to continue. The likely trigger for the crisis will be from the Eurozone, where the shift in monetary policy and the collapse in bond prices will be greatest. Importantly, we can put a tentative date on the crisis phase i
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